No, not really. It's actually much better than that. Lately I've been listening to the audio book version of "The Singularity is Near" by Ray Kurzweil. It talks about an imminent "singularity," which is defined as the point at which the rate of technological progress becomes so great, we won't be able to follow it unaided and the results may be totally unpredictable. An example would be the creation of an artificial superintelligence which improves upon its design in very quick successive generations.
The author of the book thinks this point is relatively near. He thinks it will happen by the middle of this century. He talks about the exponential rate of growth in technology that has happened in recent centuries and in particular the last 50 years. He claims that we are very close to developing biotechnology that could halt--or even reverse--the aging process. Mr. Kurzweil himself takes an enormous amount of supplements which he says has greatly slowed his personal aging process. At 56, he claims he was given the biological age of 40, for instance. He also describes efforts to reverse-engineer the brain. This is apparently very important if we are to develop full immersion virtual realities, which he believed (in 2004) would happen in this decade. He asserts that nanotechnology will radically change our mode of existence, particularly when we are able to develop billions and trillions of self-replicating nanobots to perform specific functions in our bodies.
He makes a lot of other predictions. I don't know how realistic his timeline of anticipated developments is, but his conviction is palpable. For the first time since abandoning religious faith, I'm starting to feel a "hope" in something greater. This time, however, my "hope" is based on a methodology that has a great track record for producing tangible, useful results--i.e., science. I find it beautifully ironic that science, arguably religion's greatest nemesis, may be the tool that ultimately realizes religion's main promise: immortality. Most religions provide for some kind of rationalization of death, whether by the continuation of the soul, reincarnation, resurrection, etc. The problem is that they offer no mechanism by which it happens other than "magic" of some sort. Science, on the other hand, has already proven itself by greatly extending life expectancies all over the developed world. It continues to do so. It not only prolongs our lives, but makes them less painful and more enjoyable. In just a century we went from horse and buggy to automobiles and planes. Cars can already drive themselves to a limited extent, and that technology will simply improve in the future. There are also mechanisms in place and being developed that allow us to control robotic arms with brain signals. There are so many things happening right now; the change and development is very exciting.
In the Mormon church, I was constantly reminded that we live in an exciting time--the last days before the coming of our Lord! Of course, they (meaning all of Christianity) have been saying that for the past 2,000 years, so I'm not waiting by the phone. But now I think we have very good reason to believe that we're living in the most important episode of human evolution. We evolved biologically for millions of years before modern humans emerged some 100,000 years ago. With the development of agriculture around 12,000 years ago, technological development could commence, and now in that short time span, we stand on the precipice of something big. This is our defining moment: either we will transcend our current mode of existence in some way, or we will destroy ourselves in the process--because it is all too clear that technological development has never been without potential perils and side effects. I feel confident, however, that we will overcome the challenges in front of us and realize our true potential.
No comments:
Post a Comment